Economic News

Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four US recessions

Who says bonds can’t be flashy? Investing in the nearly $24 trillion US Treasury market and other forms of government-backed debt could be a good bet next year, particularly if another recession hits, according to Truist Advisory Services. The team studied the past four US recessions and found that investors who avoided going out on …

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The US economy won’t collapse under Fed’s ‘weight’ based on the performance of these sectors despite inflation and oil risks

Investors are trying to read the tea leaves in a choppy US stock market to gauge whether its recent higher run can continue after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unleashed bullish sentiment at the end of November by indicating its aggressive interest rate hikes could slow. “The leadership of the stock market is telling you …

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BofA is selling US equities rallying on worries that unemployment will be ‘shocking’ in 2023

Strategists at BofA Global Research said it is time to sell the US stock market rally ahead of a potential surge in the unemployment rate next year. “Bears (like us) worry unemployment in 2023 will be as shocking to Main Street’s consumer sentiment as inflation in 2022,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett, chief global equity …

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The November jobs report is the most important data for inflation this year – and not in a good way

The November US jobs report on Friday showed the US economy gained 261,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an addition of 200,000 jobs. Wages jumped 0.6% in November, double the expected pace. Below are some initial reactions from economists and …

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Hot US inflation is cooling, key PCE price gauge shows

The numbers: A key gauge of US inflation rose a modest 0.3% in October, adding another piece of evidence that points to slowly easing price pressures. The increase in the personal consumption expenditures index was a touch below Wall Street’s forecast. The annual rate of inflation slowed to 6% in October from 6.2% in the …

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Banks are short more than $1 trillion in capital, this analyst says, who fears the shortfall will only get worse

The new year is nearly upon us, and one idea for where to invest is the banking sector, whose margins benefit from the high interest rates, at not terribly demanding values. That claim may surprise those who think the US banking industry has some $2.2 trillion in capital. But he whittles that figure in several …

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Fed’s shrinking of balance sheet via quantitative tightening is ‘a complete mistake,’ says Mizuho

The Federal Reserve’s attempt at shrinking its balance mistake sheet through so-called quantitative tightening, or QT, is “a complete,” according to Mizuho’s chief economist for the US “There is a nontrivial probability that market liquidity will be adversely affected well before the targeted $2 trillion has rolled off, preventing the Fed from accomplishing its goal,” …

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